But many analysts and security professionals disagree with such fearful thinking. Research firm Gartner has come forward to predict that mobile viruses will have little or no impact until at least 2007.

Graham Cluley, of antivirus software firm Sophos , agrees in general with that prediction -- that mobile viruses are not a real, current threat. "You've got more chance of being hit by a meteorite right now than being hit by a mobile phone virus," he said.

Show Me the Money

Indeed, virus writers have become more sophisticated in recent years, said Cluley. Instead of seeking the notoriety of successfully pulling off a global attack, they now are organizing themselves into criminal gangs and seeking real profit from their activities.

"There is no incentive for those gangs to look to the mobile-phone platform," Cluley contended. "They are doing very well on Windows-based personal computers."

Thus, argued Cluley, the success of criminal efforts in the Windows realm might prevent those virus writers from targeting another platform. In addition, the learning curve is steep in shifting to another platform, and the potential for profit by writing viruses is as yet unknown.

Theoretical vs. Real Threats

The real danger of mobile-phone viruses presently, said Cluley, is that theoretical talk of them will distract enterprise I.T. groups from the real problems at hand. If people lose focus on what's going on right now, he said, those Windows-based viruses will gain ground on corporate security efforts, ground that I.T. groups cannot afford to cede.

Furthermore, asserted Cluley, it is much easier to stem the tide of viruses transmitted through cellular networks at the level of the wireless service provider than it is to stop viruses on the Internet.

All mobile-messaging transmissions, for example, must pass through one of only a few network providers before being received by anyone's mobile handset. Mobile providers, therefore, could end up blocking messages laden with viruses, whereas Internet messages do not have the same centralized infrastructure through which they pass.

Locking It Down

Of course, being able to lock down a messaging system against a new mobile virus doesn't translate to being able to block a Bluetooth virus. Bluetooth, a short-range wireless technology used to shuttle data typically from consumer-electronics devices to computers, is cropping up in mobile phones, particularly in smartphones .

While there have been a handful of reported viruses that are contagious by way of Bluetooth, not many phones have Bluetooth capability just yet. When the majority of phones do, virus writers might well turn their attention more completely to mobile platforms.